As with many things, it’s hard to pinpoint the exact moment when narrow AI or pre-AGI transitions into true AGI. However, the definition is clear enough that we can confidently look at something like ChatGPT and say it’s not AGI - nor is it anywhere close. There’s likely a gray area between narrow AI and true AGI where it’s difficult to judge whether what we have qualifies, but once we truly reach AGI, I think it will be undeniable.
I doubt it will remain at “human level” for long. Even if it were no more intelligent than humans, it would still process information millions of times faster, possess near-infinite memory, and have access to all existing information. A system like this would almost certainly be so obviously superintelligent that there would be no question about whether it qualifies as AGI.
I think this is similar to the discussion about when a fetus becomes a person. It may not be possible to pinpoint a specific moment, but we can still look at an embryo and confidently say that it’s not a person, just as we can look at a newborn baby and say that it definitely is. In this analogy, the embryo is ChatGPT, and the baby is AGI.
As with many things, it’s hard to pinpoint the exact moment when narrow AI or pre-AGI transitions into true AGI. However, the definition is clear enough that we can confidently look at something like ChatGPT and say it’s not AGI - nor is it anywhere close. There’s likely a gray area between narrow AI and true AGI where it’s difficult to judge whether what we have qualifies, but once we truly reach AGI, I think it will be undeniable.
I doubt it will remain at “human level” for long. Even if it were no more intelligent than humans, it would still process information millions of times faster, possess near-infinite memory, and have access to all existing information. A system like this would almost certainly be so obviously superintelligent that there would be no question about whether it qualifies as AGI.
I think this is similar to the discussion about when a fetus becomes a person. It may not be possible to pinpoint a specific moment, but we can still look at an embryo and confidently say that it’s not a person, just as we can look at a newborn baby and say that it definitely is. In this analogy, the embryo is ChatGPT, and the baby is AGI.